From Rs 73k to over Rs 1.2L between January-December 2025 -- is buying gold in 2026 still sensible?
Silver and gold prices declined sharply in the futures trade on Friday as traders booked profits at elevated levels after a record-breaking rally, tracking a bearish sentiment in global markets and a rebound in the US dollar.
'India has initiated a bear market and we will still go lower. It has nothing to do with the economy.'
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
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Domestic gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their holdings jump 65 per cent to 95 tonnes in 2025, elevating Indian ETFs to sixth place globally, going by holdings of the yellow metal. At the end of 2024, they ranked eighth with 57.5 tonnes of holding, according to an analysis of data from the World Gold Council (WGC).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported a significant 52 per cent year-on-year increase in gains from foreign exchange transactions, reaching 1.69 trillion in FY26. This surge occurred despite the central bank selling a gross $195 billion in the spot market to manage rupee volatility, which saw a 9.85 per cent depreciation.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
'The pace of gold's ascent is striking, with prices rising from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in just 36 days -- far quicker than the historical average of 1,036 days taken to achieve similar $500/oz gains.'
Gold ETFs attracted around Rs 11,700 crore, the highest in a calendar month.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
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Earlier, most investors counted on traditional options like fixed deposits, gold, or property. But in 2026, you will have access to a much wider range of opportunities across different markets and sectors.
Shares of gold finance companies Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance hit their respective all-time highs, gaining on the BSE during Wednesday on expectation of healthy earnings. In comparison, the benchmark BSE Sensex was down 0.14 per cent, closing at 85,408.
New investors should not allow themselves to fall prey to FOMO and rush headlong into gold.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed marginally higher, breaking a four-day losing streak, despite elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The market saw a temporary pause in panic selling, though cautious sentiment persists.
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
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India should not stay on the margins of this initiative. There should be a serious debate about what would be in India's best interests asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
The Reserve Bank's gold reserves crossed 880 metric tonnes in the first half of 2025-26 with the central bank adding 0.2 metric tonnes in the last week of September. The total value of the gold was $95 billion as of September 26, 2025, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The Indian rupee plummeted to a new all-time closing low of 95.81 against the US dollar, driven by surging crude oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a strengthening dollar index.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
Jewellery makers are set to post strong revenue growth in the 2025-26 (FY26) October-December quarter (Q3), supported by a robust wedding season and rising value growth, even as volumes decline.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
'We expect modest returns in 2026 versus the steep gains seen over the past few years.'
Gold has emerged as the most stable asset during episodes of geopolitical stress, and crude oil has been more sensitive than others when it comes to regional conflicts and sanctions, according to a report in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly bulletin. Silver and the United States Treasury have showed moderate reactions.
Gold extended its record-breaking run to breach the Rs 1.5 lakh per 10-gram mark in futures trade on Tuesday, while silver surged to a lifetime high of Rs 3.27 lakh per kg as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid mounting global tensions. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for February delivery climbed Rs 6,861, or 4.7 per cent, to record Rs 1,52,500 per 10 grams after settling at Rs 1,45,639 per 10 grams in the previous session.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
'Unfortunately, today most ministers are busy with either election duty or praising duty. They are not interested in serving duty.' 'Ministers have become relaxed like retired people still holding onto jobs.' 'Look at how the NEET paper leaked. But there is no accountability.' 'After 12 years, they have become saturated. They are short of ideas.'
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The Strait of Hormuz crisis is impacting lifestyles worldwide, from reduced gold purchases in India to energy conservation in Europe and Japan, as governments urge citizens to adapt to the global energy shock.
'People become guided by emotions, fear of missing out, and greed. They tend to invest in booming sectors that may prove exceptionally expensive.' 'Typically, that represents the peak, and subsequently, they lose substantially.'
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
The World Gold Council (WGC) said the recent fall in gold prices was driven by speculative traders in the futures markets.
'Once the market decides it wants to go up, it goes up -- no amount of bad news can really hold it back.'
Experts advise investors to buy at lower levels in the next few months and sell at the higher end of their range in the second half, reports Rajesh Bhayani.
Prime Minister Modi has urged citizens to adopt measures like judicious fuel use, postponing gold purchases, and deferring foreign travel to strengthen India's economy in the face of the West Asia conflict's adverse impact.
